Heat stress and the fitness consequences of climate change for terrestrial ectotherms

1. Climate change will increase both average temperatures and extreme summer temperatures. Analyses of the fitness consequences of climate change have generally omitted negative fitness and population declines associated with heat stress. 2. Here, we examine how seasonal and interannual temperature variability will impact fitness shifts of ectotherms from the past (1961–1990) to future (2071–2100), by modelling thermal performance curves (TPCs) for insect species across latitudes. 3. In temperate regions, climate change increased the length of the growing season (increasing fitness) and increased the frequency of heat stress (decreasing fitness). Consequently, species at mid-latitudes (20–40°) showed pronounced but heterogeneous responses to climate change. Fitness decreases for these species were accompanied by greater interannual variation in fitness. An alternative TPC model and a larger data set gave qualitatively similar results. 4. How close maximum summer temperatures are to the critical thermal maximum of a species – the thermal buffer – is a good predictor of the change in mean fitness expected under climate change. Thermal buffers will decrease to near or below zero by 2100 for many tropical and mid-latitude species. 5. Our forecasts suggest that mid-latitude species will be particularly susceptible to heat stress associated with climate change due to temperature variation.